One of the most frequently asked questions that I get as a Realtor is “how is the market” and “do you think it is going to crash?”
Well…there is some astounding news that Core Logic just posted regarding appreciation and delinquency rates. These are quite notably the two most important factors in determining what our market looks like now and what could potentially happen in the future. Let’s take a further look into Appreciation and Delinquency Rates below! šš¼
CoreLogic HPI Posted Record Year-Over-Year Growth in 2021
Home Price Index Highlights: December 2021
- National home prices increased 18.5% year over year in December.
- Price appreciation is expected to slow throughout 2022.
National home prices increased 18.5% year over year in December 2021, according to the latestĀ CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPIĀ®) Report. The December 2021 HPI gain was up from the December 2020 gain of 8.9% and was the highest 12-month growth in the U.S. index since the series began in 1976. Price appreciation averaged 15% for the full year of 2021, up from the 2020 full year average of 6%. Home price growth in 2021 started off at 10% in the first quarter, steadily increasing and ending the year with an increase of 18% for the fourth quarter. While home price growth is expected to slow during 2022, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows it will remain high in the first half of the year and average 9.6% for the full year.
Summary
For those buyers sitting on the sidelines, this is positive news that undoubtedly the longer you wait, the more it’ll cost you. This is also a great reminder to future sellers that if you have been contemplating the right time to sell, the coming spring and summer seasons are great times to liquidate as values are expected to climb slowly, but tapper off towards the end of the year as the Feds raise interest rates.
National Delinquency Rates Dropped Below March 2020 Level in November
Loan Performance Insights Report Highlights: November 2021
- The nationās overall delinquency rate was 3.6% in November.
- All stages of delinquencies showed year-over-year decreases in November.
In November 2021, 3.6% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) , which was a 2.3-percentage point decrease from November 2020 according to the latestĀ CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report. November marked the first time since the pandemic began that the overall delinquency rate fell below the March 2020 level.
Summary
There was a lot of pre-pandemic chatter about a market crash and when the pandemic hit, it never happened. With mortgage forbearances showing little impact on delinquency rates, this is a good sign that the market is stable and there are no indicators of a market crash anytime soon.
Conclusion
The record high appreciation rates is clearly what has been creating a Boom for the market overall, but we are seeing a natural correction occur as this type of growth is not sustainable forever. Additionally, the buyer pool has experienced a lot of fatigue with the bidding war process and it’s only a matter of time until these hot market dissipates. In regards the a market crash, experts don’t foresee anything like 2008 ever happening again. When you look at delinquency rates back then, which in some cases rose as much as 53% reaching as high as 8 percent or more by year end, we are not anywhere near that.